The Liquidation Market in Transition: What 2024 vs 2025 Data Tells Us and What to Expect in 2026
- Chris Zink
- Dec 19
- 4 min read
The liquidation industry does not exist in a vacuum. It sits downstream from retail inventory decisions, consumer behavior, labor market trends, and global trade policy. Over the last two years, those forces have shifted meaningfully. For liquidation professionals and resellers, understanding those shifts is no longer optional. It is the difference between anticipating supply and reacting to it.
This article breaks down what changed from 2024 to 2025, how jobs and economic data are influencing liquidation activity today, and what the data suggests for 2026.
Retail Inventory and Why Liquidation Supply Remains Strong
In 2024, many retailers were still correcting inventory mistakes made during earlier supply chain disruptions. Inventory levels were elevated in several categories, especially general merchandise, home goods, and discretionary retail.
In 2025, inventory discipline improved, but excess inventory did not disappear. Instead, it became more uneven. Some categories tightened while others continued to experience overhang due to forecasting errors, seasonal misses, and tariff driven cost uncertainty.
For liquidation professionals, this matters because it changes the pattern of supply, not the existence of it.
The key takeaway is this: liquidation supply is no longer a constant flood. It arrives in waves. When demand softens or costs spike, retailers move faster to clear inventory rather than hold it. That behavior is now structural.
Returns Are Still the Engine of the Liquidation Economy
Returns remain the single largest source of liquidation inventory.
In 2024, U.S. retail returns reached approximately $890 billion, representing nearly 17 percent of total retail sales. That volume created a massive flow of mixed condition goods into reverse logistics channels.
In 2025, return rates eased slightly to an estimated 15 to 16 percent, largely due to stricter return policies and fees. However, total return volume remains enormous. Even modest improvements in return rates still result in hundreds of billions of dollars worth of returned merchandise each year.
For resellers, this means the following:
• Supply is durable and recurring • Condition variability is increasing • Manifest quality and speed to market matter more than ever
Returns are not shrinking in a way that reduces opportunity. They are becoming more operationally complex, which favors platforms and buyers that can move quickly.
Tariffs and Cost Pressure Are Quietly Feeding Liquidation
Tariffs have become one of the most underappreciated drivers of liquidation volume.
Between 2024 and 2025, effective U.S. tariff rates increased across multiple import heavy categories including apparel, footwear, electronics, and home goods. Retailers responded in predictable ways:
• Pull forward imports ahead of tariff changes • Overbuy to hedge future cost increases • Cancel or delay purchase orders when pricing no longer works
Each of those actions increases the likelihood that inventory ends up in liquidation.
In 2025, retailers became far more aggressive about clearing inventory early rather than holding goods that tied up working capital at higher landed costs. This behavior directly benefits liquidation channels and resale buyers who can absorb volume quickly.
Looking ahead to 2026, most economists expect tariff related inflation pressure to moderate, but volatility remains. Volatility is what feeds liquidation, not stability.
The Jobs Report and Why It Matters to Resellers
Employment data is one of the most reliable leading indicators for liquidation activity.
In late 2025, job growth slowed significantly compared to 2024. Monthly job gains declined, unemployment rose into the mid 4 percent range, and wage growth cooled. While the labor market remains healthy by historical standards, the direction matters.
When job growth slows, three things happen:
• Consumers become more price sensitive • Retail sales growth softens • Inventory sell through slows
Slower sell through leads directly to excess inventory and returns, which then move into liquidation channels.
For resellers, this environment tends to favor value oriented inventory and price driven demand. Buyers look for deals, and liquidation inventory becomes more attractive relative to full price retail.
Consumer Behavior Is Shifting Toward Value
One of the most important trends across 2024 and 2025 has been sustained consumer price sensitivity.
Even when headline inflation cools, households remain cautious. Spending shifts toward discount, off price, and resale channels. This behavior benefits liquidation buyers who can offer competitive pricing while maintaining acceptable margins.
In 2026, most forecasts expect consumer spending growth to slow further, not collapse. That is a favorable scenario for liquidation professionals. Moderate demand combined with cautious consumers tends to keep resale markets active and competitive.
What the Data Suggests for 2026
Based on current economic forecasts, labor trends, and retail behavior, the most likely 2026 scenario looks like this:
• Moderate economic growth • Slightly higher unemployment than recent lows • Continued consumer value orientation • Retailers prioritizing liquidity over inventory hoarding
For the liquidation industry, this points to steady or increased inventory availability, particularly from returns, overbuys, and category level slowdowns.
The biggest risk is not lack of supply. It is lack of speed.
Platforms and buyers that can move inventory quickly, price accurately, and reduce friction will outperform those that rely on slower, manual processes.
What This Means for Liquidation Professionals and Resellers
If you operate in liquidation or resale, the environment heading into 2026 rewards a few core capabilities:
• Fast access to inventory when supply spikes • Clear manifests and realistic grading • Predictable payment and pickup processes • Buyer demand that is already present
The industry is not contracting. It is professionalizing. Volatility favors operators who are prepared.
Final Thoughts
The liquidation industry sits at the intersection of retail stress, consumer behavior, and economic cycles. Over the past two years, those forces have aligned in a way that continues to support strong liquidation activity.
Returns remain massive. Tariffs create inventory whiplash. Jobs data signals consumer caution. None of those dynamics are going away in 2026.
For liquidation professionals and resellers, the opportunity is not about waiting for excess inventory. It is about being positioned when it arrives.
If you are a buyer looking for consistent liquidation inventory, download the Pallet Liquidation app.If you are an inventory provider interested in listing pallets or truckloads, contact our team to get started. Learn more at www.palletliquidationmarketplace.com
Phone: 816-583-0423
